Methodological issues of assessing the effectiveness of innovation. Principles for evaluating the economic efficiency of innovative projects
The vast majority of innovative industrial projects involve the release of new products. Decision making regarding the implementation of a certain project in life is made after a careful study of all the factors that will influence its implementation.
In the context of market transformations, it is necessary holistic model for assessing the effectiveness of innovation from five points of view: 1) meeting the needs of stakeholders; 2) input from stakeholders; 3) innovation strategy; 4) process; 5) opportunities.
The effectiveness of an innovative project- This is a category that reflects the compliance of the project with the goals and interests of its participants, therefore it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the project as a whole, as well as the effectiveness of the participation of projects of each of its participants.
The effectiveness of an innovative project as a whole is assessed to determine the potential attractiveness of the project for its possible participants and justify funding sources. The effectiveness of participation in an innovative project is determined to check the significance of the project and the interest of its participants in it.
The principles of evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects should be based on the principles of evaluating investment projects, taking into account the specifics of the stages and results of the innovation process. The most important principles include:
1. Consideration and analysis of an innovative project throughout its entire life cycle (billing period).
2. Modeling the flows of products, resources, funds at all stages of the implementation of an innovative project.
3. Coordination of the conditions for comparing different variants of an innovative project.
4. The principle of taking into account the time factor when assessing the parameters of an innovative project and its external economic environment.
5. The principle of alternatives, which provides for taking into account the various possibilities of using resources, ways to achieve the goal of an innovative project, and choosing the best options for design solutions.
6. Evaluation can be done by comparing non-project and with-project situations rather than pre-project and post-project situations.
7. Taking into account all the most important consequences of an innovative project: economic, environmental, social.
8. Multi-stage assessment at the stages of substantiating the size of innovative costs, feasibility studies, choosing a financing scheme, monitoring, etc. At each stage, the cost of the project is specified.
9. Taking into account the influence of inflation, uncertainty and risks, as well as the possibility of using different currencies in its implementation.
The general scheme for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects should contain the following stages: 1) an expert assessment of the social significance of an innovative project for national economic and global projects; for local projects, only their commercial efficiency is assessed - the financial consequences of the project implementation; 2) calculation of indicators of the effectiveness of an innovative project as a whole in order to find potential investors; 3) evaluation of efficiency after justifying the financing scheme: the composition of the participants is specified and the effectiveness of participation in the innovative project of each of them is assessed.
The methodological approach to determining the effectiveness of innovation remains generally known: the results of innovation activities are compared with the innovation costs that provided this result.
Efficiency - it is a relative value that can be measured by such indicators: the index of profitability of innovations; accounting rate of return; internal rate of return; the efficiency of using equity and borrowed capital; budget efficiency, etc. The scientific and technical efficiency of the results of applied research works is determined in conjunction with the assessment of their economic and social efficiency using indicators of the scientific and technical level.
In foreign and domestic practice, there are two methodological approaches to determining the feasibility of investment projects:
1) indicators that do not take into account the value of money over time (payback period, profitability index, economic value added);
2) coefficients of discounting cash flows (net current effect, internal and modified rate of return, discounted payback period).
From a theoretical point of view, methods of discounting cash flows are more justified, since they take into account cash costs that are not reflected in profit.
Market conditions force businesses to innovate in order to gain a certain competitive edge. Increasing the competitiveness of enterprises gives them the opportunity to take their proper place in the global division of labor, which provides a wider sales market, an increase in cash receipts.
The effectiveness of innovation is determined at the microeconomic level (the level of individual business entities that seek to improve the results of their business and get high profits in the long term) and at the macroeconomic level (the state level, the purpose of which is to ensure the dynamic development of the entire society).
The main criteria for evaluating the results of innovation:
1. Relevance provides for the compliance of the innovation project with the goals of scientific, technical and socio-economic development of the country, region, enterprise that can reflect global development trends and determine the development strategy of the country, region, individual enterprise.
2. Significance... State significance consists in solving problems of a nationwide scale in all spheres of life of the population in accordance with the goals of scientific, technical and socio-economic development of the country. Regional significance reflects the degree of solution of socio-economic and environmental problems inherent in a particular region, goals of realizing its potential. The sectoral significance shows the influence of innovation on the solution of problems that are important for many economic entities of the region. Significance for a business entity is to strengthen its market position through the solution of technological, economic, social, environmental problems.
3. Multidimensionality takes into account the impact of innovation on different aspects of the business entity and its environment, obtaining different types effect.
Scientific and technical assessment determines: to what extent the adopted technical solutions meet modern technological requirements in industrially developed countries; what level and scale of novelty of an innovative project, its constituent parts, is it based on an intellectual product or on intellectual property protected by patents; the technologies and technical means proposed in the project are promising; which market (external or internal) the new product is intended for.
Economic assessment... Covers a system of indicators that display the ratio of the results and costs of each participant in the innovation. The initial data for their determination are the market need for innovation (the volume of its sale during the billing period), the forecast price of the innovation (taking into account the costs, inflation rate, interest on loans, the level of profitability) and the value of real cash flows, which is determined by the sum of current expenses, investments , sales proceeds, etc.
Resource assessment about exist in order to determine the influence of innovation on the consumption of a certain type of resource and to overcome the problem of its limitations. Evaluated by indicators of increasing the efficiency of their use (increasing the efficiency of the use of labor resources - an increase in labor productivity; technical resources - an increase in capital productivity, etc.).
Social assessment is to determine the contribution of innovation to improving the quality of life of workers (or the population, if we are talking about large-scale innovations),
Environmental assessment takes into account the impact of innovation on solving environmental problems, which is especially important when implementing innovative projects that can change the level of environmental safety of the territory. It is assessed by such indicators: reduction of emissions into the environment; ensuring waste-free production by means of a closed technological cycle of resource processing, etc.
Evaluation of innovation makes it possible to more accurately take into account all the results and consequences that are expected from its implementation in life, and make the right decision regarding the feasibility of its implementation.
Key indicators of economic efficiency of innovative projects
The economic efficiency of an innovative project is determined by the amount of income or profit received through the implementation of the innovation throughout the life cycle of the project. Evaluation of the effectiveness of investments in innovative projects can be carried out by different qualitative and quantitative methods, each of which has certain advantages and disadvantages.
All quantitative indicators of economic efficiency can be divided into two groups: 1) indicators that take into account the time factor (net current effect, internal rate of return), using which the discounting procedure is carried out - determining the current value of future cash costs and charges from the implementation of an innovative project; 2) indicators that do not take into account the time factor (economic value added, investment payback period, accounting rate of return).
When calculating economic efficiency, it is imperative to take into account the change in the value of money over time, since a lot of time passes from investing to making a profit.
Methods for evaluating economic efficiency used in practice include the calculation of several indicators: an integral indicator of efficiency; return on investment index; internal rate of return; payback term; break-even points of the project. In addition to formalized indicators for assessing the effectiveness of investments, various restrictions (the maximum payback period of investments, requirements for environmental protection, personnel safety) and informal criteria (penetration into new sales markets, ousting competing firms from the market, political motives) can be taken into account.
Net present value (or cumulative effect - e then the difference between results and costs in the billing period, taking into account their discounting:
where: T p- settlement year; D t- income; In t- innovative costs; a t- discount coefficient.
If net present value positive, then the decision is advisable to implement.
In foreign and domestic practice economic effect innovation activity is determined by the indicator "net current effect".
Net Current Effect (NPV) is the sum of the excess of discounted cash flows for the entire life cycle of the project over investments in an innovative project:
, (12.2.)
where: PV is the present value of future cash flows; I - a one-time investment in an innovative project; СF t- cash flow from the implementation of an innovative project in the t-th year; r is the discount rate.
If an innovative project involves not a one-time investment, but a consistent investment of the firm's financial resources over several years, the NPV indicator is calculated using the formula:
, (12.3.)
where І t, is the amount of investment in t-th period implementation of an innovative project; i is the predicted average inflation rate in the t-th period.
If: NPV >0, it is advisable to accept an innovative project - the value of the company and the welfare of its owners increase; NPV <0, an innovative project should be rejected - the value of the company decreases, the owners will incur losses; NPV = 0, s The value of the firm will not change, but the scale of the enterprise will increase.
Internal rate of return on investment in an innovative project ( IRR ) - the estimated interest rate at which the received net cash flows from the innovative project are equal to the investments for its implementation:
, (12.4.)
The larger the IRR , the higher the efficiency of the innovative project. The economic essence of the IRR indicator is that a firm can carry out projects, the level of profitability of which is not lower than the cost of capital (CC). If IRR > SS - an innovative project is accepted; IRR < СС - reject; IRR = SS- the project is not profitable and not unprofitable.
The IRR value can be determined in different ways, incl. an iterative method:
, (12.5.)
where r 1 is the discount rate for which NPV> 0 (NPV<0); r 2 - discount rate at which NPV <0 ( NPV >0); NPV 1 , NPV 2 - net current (economic) effect, respectively, under conditions of use r 1 and r 2.
The index of profitability of an innovative project (РІ) characterizes the level of cash flow per unit of innovation costs and is determined by the formulas:
1) with a one-time investment:
; (12.6.)
2) when making investments over several years:
. (12.7.)
If PI> 1 - it is advisable to adopt an innovative project; PI< 1 - reject; PI = 1 project is not profitable and not unprofitable, while NPV = 0 .
Accounting rate of return(ARR) characterizes the ratio of the average net profit to the average investment. One of the indicator modifications ARR fledged according to the formula:
, (12.8.)
where P t- the amount of net profit from the implementation of an innovative project in the t-th year; D t- the amount of depreciation deductions for the same period.
Payback period of an innovative project - e the period during which the additional profit received as a result of the implementation of the innovative project will ensure the return on investment:
where PI- initial investment in the project; D- projected annual cash income.
Since the annual cash income changes over the life cycle of an innovative product, the calculation should be done on their average value.
If these indicators indicate the economic profitability of the project within its life cycle at predicted levels of demand and prices for products, then the investment decision may be positive.
The ecological effect is closely related to the social one. Valuation of social and environmental outcomes (P t), which is part of the economic effect can be calculated by the formula:
, (2.10.)
where R jt... - the value of the j-th result in natural terms in t-m year; a jt- the cost estimate of a unit of a separate result in the t-th year.
3. Innovation risk: problems and methods of assessment
Participants in an innovative project are interested in analyzing the risks that may arise during its implementation. Risk assessment can be carried out using a variety of methods, among which the most common are sensitivity analysis and analysis of the critical (break-even) volume of products of an innovative project.
Sensitivity analysis - a project risk analysis technique that shows how the value of net present value will change for a given change in the input variable under different conditions.
Sensitivity analysis makes it possible to check the sensitivity of the expected performance indicators (profit, NPV) to changes in individual factors: the volume of sales of innovative products; unit prices; variable costs per unit of innovative products; discount rate; tax rates; inflation rates, etc.
Sensitivity analysis is performed using the simulation method. In the course of the analysis, a "basic" variant is determined, in which all the factors under study acquire their initial values. Then the factors are changed one by one with fixed values of other parameters. Calculate the net current effect due to the influence of the above factors (NPV 1) and in the base case (NPV 0). Comparing NPV 1 with NPV 0, the unit project risk coefficient is determined (Cr.o.):
. (12.11.)
The value of the coefficient, which is less than one, indicates the feedback of changes in a certain factor (an increase in tax rates will lead to a decrease in NPV) .
In foreign and domestic practice, the analysis of the sensitivity of the project is determined by different scenarios of the development of events: pessimistic, most probable, optimistic.
With the help of sensitivity analysis, the most significant factors in terms of risks are determined, and the most effective strategy for the implementation of an innovative project is developed. Advantages of the sensitivity analysis method: objectivity, simplicity of calculations and clarity; disadvantages - the analysis provides for a change in only one factor of the project, which leads to incomplete accounting of the relationships between individual factors and their cumulative influence. To take into account the simultaneous change in several factors, it is necessary to use computer technology.
To assess the level of safety of innovative results, the indicator of the critical (break-even) sales volume is calculated, at which all costs for the manufacture and sale of innovative products are reimbursed.
Break-even production volume can be calculated in kind (Q r) and cost (TR r) expression:
where FC- the annual value of conditionally fixed costs, UAH; R- unit price, UAH; V- variable costs per unit of production; K MP- the ratio of the marginal profit, which is calculated as the ratio of the marginal profit (MP) to the actual proceeds from sales (TR):
. (12.14.)
The planned volume of annual sales in physical and value terms required to obtain the desired profit is calculated using the following formulas:
, (12.15.)
, (12.16.)
where Q pl- the planned volume of annual sales in kind, at which the desired profit is achieved N pl; TR pl ..- the same in terms of value.
Introduction ……………………………………………………………… .. ……… 2
1. Innovative activity at the enterprise.
1.1 The concept of innovations and their classification …………………………………… 3
1.2 The essence of the innovative activity of the enterprise …………………… ..5
2. Techniques for assessing the effectiveness of innovation.
2.1 Methods for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects. …………….… 9
2.2 Evaluation of the effectiveness of an innovative project in the Russian economic conditions ……………. ………………………………………… .21
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… .24
References …………………………………………………………… 26
Introduction.
Decision-making on innovation activity is based on the assessment of the innovative qualities of the proposed implementation objects, which, in accordance with the methodology of modern innovation analysis, is carried out according to a certain set of criterion indicators of efficiency. Determining the values of innovation efficiency indicators allows us to evaluate the considered innovative object from the standpoint of acceptability for further analysis, to make a comparative assessment of a number of competing innovative objects and their ranking, to select a set of innovative projects that provide a given ratio of efficiency and risk, which is relevant in modern economic conditions.
The purpose of the abstract is to consider the basic techniques for assessing the effectiveness of innovation. In accordance with this goal, the following tasks were formulated and solved:
The concept of "innovation" is considered
The essence of the innovative activity of the enterprise has been studied.
Analyzed the main methods of assessing the effectiveness of innovation
Evaluation of the effectiveness of innovations is the most critical stage in making an investment decision, the results of which largely determine the degree of innovation implementation. In turn, the objectivity and reliability of the results obtained are largely due to the analysis methods used. In this regard, it is important to consider the existing methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of innovation and to determine the possibilities of their application in order to make a rational choice of options for innovation.
When writing the abstract, various bibliographic and periodical publications, materials on the Internet were used.
Part 1. Innovative activity at the enterprise.
1.1 The concept of innovation and their classification.
The study of the innovative development of enterprises requires, first of all, the study of such basic concepts as innovation and their classification, the innovation process and its components, innovative activity and its characteristics. The analysis of the essence and content of these economic categories, as well as the identification of the features of the development and implementation of new technologies, makes it possible to reveal the modern concept of the implementation of the innovative development of economic entities.
In the literal sense, innovation (from the English innovation) is translated into Russian as the introduction of a new one and means the process of using an innovation or invention. That is, a new idea, or innovation, from the moment it is accepted for distribution, acquires a new quality - it becomes an innovation. The process of this transformation is called the innovation process. In order for a new idea to be embodied in the form of a new technology or a new product, it must have scientific and technical novelty, production feasibility and economic efficiency.
In the Modern Economic Dictionary: "Innovation - innovations in the field of technology, technology, labor organization and management, based on the use of scientific achievements and advanced experience, as well as the use of these innovations in a variety of fields and fields of activity"
The most complete and comprehensive, in our opinion, is the following definition: "Innovation is the process of implementing a new idea in any area of human activity, contributing to the satisfaction of the existing demand in the market and bringing economic benefits."
In order to study the complex nature of innovations, to reveal the various areas and methods of their use, and hence the various management methods, it seems necessary to study the system and classification of innovations. Analysis of the main features of innovations, as well as the properties and characteristic features of certain innovations will reveal the specific requirements for the mechanism of their development and implementation at enterprises.
It is customary to classify innovations according to various criteria. Many of them are identical and related. The most similar of those presented should include such signs as the degree of novelty of innovation, its role and significance, as well as the nature and time of entry to the market. In the development and implementation of innovations, as well as in the study of these processes, it is necessary to differentiate innovations first of all into: 1) basic and improving; 2) grocery, technological and non-technological; 3) preactive or reactive.
The basic ones include innovations that implement large scientific and technical developments and become the basis for the formation of new generation technologies that have no analogues in domestic and world practice. Basic innovations are products and technologies that are fundamentally new for the industry. Enhancing innovation implements small and medium-sized inventions that improve the manufacturing technology and / or technical characteristics of already known products. In contrast to them, pseudo-innovations are aimed at partial changes (more often of a decorative nature - shape, color) of outdated generations of equipment and technologies, which inherently slow down technical progress.
Depending on the main content and nature of the innovation, it is customary to subdivide it into:
Grocery, which are associated with changes in products;
Technological, applied to production methods;
Non-technological, affecting organizational, managerial and financial - economic factors.
Reactive innovation is an innovation that an economic entity implements after a competitor as a response to a new product that has already appeared on the market.
Strategic innovations include innovations, the introduction of which is proactive (pre-active) in order to obtain the advantage of the first move ", which, if used correctly, can lead to market leadership and high profits.
1.2 The essence of the innovative activity of the enterprise.
For many Russian enterprises, faced with intense competition, the problem of survival in the harsh market conditions, it is innovation and its results that are the main condition for success and efficiency. Therefore, participants in market relations, primarily those who are engaged in production, are obliged to purposefully form and implement their innovation policy to ensure their current and future competitiveness.
The innovative activity of an enterprise is a complex dynamic system of action and interaction of various methods, factors and controls involved in scientific research, the creation of new types of products, the improvement of equipment and objects of labor, technological processes and forms of organization of production on the basis of the latest achievements of science, technology and advanced experience; planning, financing and coordination of scientific and technological progress; improving economic levers and incentives; development of a system of measures to regulate a complex of interdependent measures aimed at accelerating the intensive development of scientific and technological progress and increasing its socio-economic efficiency.
It should be noted that it is advisable to distinguish between the concepts of "innovation" and "innovation".
An innovation is a formalized result of fundamental, applied research, development or experimental work in any field of activity, aimed at increasing its efficiency.
Innovations can take the form:
Discoveries, inventions, patents;
Trademarks;
Rationalization proposals;
Documentation for a new or improved product, technology, management or manufacturing process;
Organizational, industrial or other structures;
- "know-how";
Scientific approaches or principles;
Marketing research results, etc.
To develop an innovation, it is necessary to conduct marketing research, R&D, organizational and technical preparation of production, production and formalize the results. Innovation is the end result of the introduction of innovations in order to change the object of management and obtain an economic, social, environmental, scientific and technical or other type of effect.
Innovations can be developed both for their own needs (for implementation in their own production or for accumulation), and for sale. At the "entrance" of the enterprise as a system, there will be innovations of their sellers, which can be immediately implemented, passing into the form of innovations, or simply accumulate, waiting in the wings for implementation. At the "exit" of the enterprise there will be only innovations as goods (Fig. 1)
Rice. 1 Scheme of transformation of innovations into innovations and the main products of the enterprise:
NP - purchased innovations.
NPN, NPP, NPI - purchased innovations, respectively, for accumulation, for sale, in innovation.
NSI, NSP, NSN - innovations of our own production (development), implemented, respectively, in innovations, for sale, for accumulation. IIT, ITS - innovations, respectively, of purchased and own innovations. OP - the main products of the enterprise
To assess the effectiveness of innovative projects, enterprises use the same principles that are used to assess investment projects, since the implementation of any project, including an innovative one, requires certain resources (human, financial, etc.), the cost and efficiency of which is necessary estimate. The design approach to investment activities the enterprise is based on the principle of cash flows. A special feature is its predictive and long-term nature, therefore, the applied approach takes into account the time and risk factor. Depending on the consideration of the time factor in the implementation of investment costs and obtaining a return investment flow, all indicators are divided into two main groups - discount and static (Fig. 8.1).
Indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects based on discount calculation methods provide for the mandatory discounting of investment costs and incomes for individual intervals of the period under review. At the same time, valuation indicators based on static (accounting) calculation methods provide for the use of accounting data on costs and incomes in the calculations without discounting them over time.
In modern investment practice, indicators for assessing the effectiveness of projects based on the use of discount calculation methods are predominant. They must be calculated for all medium and large projects, the implementation of which is of a long-term nature. Indicators based on the use of static calculation methods are used, as a rule, to assess the effectiveness of small short-term projects.
Rice. 8.1.
Static (non-discount) indicators for assessing investment performance are, on the one hand, fairly simple and intuitive, and on the other, approximate. They do not focus on cash flows and the change in the value of a monetary unit over time, therefore they are used as an indicative criterion, mainly for analyzing short-term investments or when investments are made once at the beginning of the term. The most famous undiscounted indicators are:
- 1. Calculation of unit costs - comparison of costs per one natural unit of the resulting indicator. In this case, of the alternative options, the best one is the one that is characterized by the minimum costs.
- 2. Comparison of annual profit - the method used when the project involves the release of different products or products at different prices. The maximum average annual profit corresponds to the best investment option.
- 3. Calculation of a simple rate of return (the ratio of the average annual return to investment). There are two methods for determining this indicator: in relation to the average and in relation to the initial investment in the project. The methodology for calculating the profitability in relation to the initial investment is simpler, but it gives an underestimated result and does not take into account the depreciation of fixed assets, intangible assets and changes in working capital in the course of the project.
- 4. Depreciation method, or comparison of a simple payback period. It consists in calculating the ratio of capital investments (without including the initial working capital) to the average annual depreciation and net profit for each of the alternatives. The resulting value, called the payback period, is compared with the period of operation of the purchased equipment. It is believed that a normal project pays off in a period not exceeding half of the operating period. This is a very important criterion for rejecting deliberately ineffective projects (for example, those that do not have time to pay off before the equipment replacement period). A simple payback period is easily calculated and allows you not to waste time on a detailed analysis of projects, the payback of which takes too long, which does not allow financing such projects in high-risk conditions.
It should be emphasized that the above non-discount indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects are preferred, primarily at the initial stages, by small enterprises, in the case of short-term innovative projects with low capital intensity. Their main disadvantage is the operation of static values (cash flows, profit) without taking into account investment risk, as well as the subjective determination of limit values (payback period and profitability).
- L. P. Goncharenko, Yu. A. Arutyunov Decree. op. P. 152.
One of the important points in the management of innovations at the enterprise is the determination (assessment) of the effectiveness of scientific, technical and innovative activities.
Depending on the results and costs taken into account, the following types of effect are distinguished: economic, scientific and technical, financial, resource, social, environmental
Depending on the time period for taking into account results and costs, there are indicators of the effect for the calculation period, indicators of the annual effect. The duration of the accepted time period depends on the following factors, namely:
- - the duration of the innovation period;
- - service life of the object of innovation;
- - the degree of reliability of the initial information;
- - the requirements of investors.
The general principle for evaluating efficiency is to compare the effect (result) and costs. The result / cost ratio can be expressed in both natural and monetary values, and the efficiency indicator for these methods of expression may be different for the same situation. But, most importantly, you need to clearly understand: efficiency in production is always an attitude.
In general, the problem of determining the economic effect and choosing the most preferable options for implementing innovations requires, on the one hand, the excess of the final results from their use over the costs of development, production and implementation, and on the other hand, comparing the results obtained with the results from the use of other similar ones. assigning innovation options.
Especially acute is the need for a quick assessment and the correct choice of options in firms that use accelerated depreciation, in which the terms of replacement of existing machines and equipment with new ones are significantly reduced.
The method of calculating the effect (income) of innovations, based on comparing the results of their development with the costs, makes it possible to make a decision on the expediency of using new developments.
It is necessary to distinguish in content two concepts: economic effect and economic efficiency.
The first means achieving a positive result (effect) from the innovation as a whole. The effect is expressed in rubles. For example, the introduction of a new technological line for the production of footwear at an enterprise gives an economic effect of UAH 150 million per year.
The second concept, as a rule, includes specific (per unit of products, services, or invested ruble) indicators that characterize the innovation from the qualitative point of view. For example, these include efficiency per hryvnia of costs, payback periods and others.
The procedure for calculating the economic effect of an innovative project and the choice of the best option.
The methodological schemes for calculating the economic effect outlined below make it possible to determine the fundamental provisions for choosing the best option for implementing an innovative project. At the feasibility study stage, they boil down to the following:
- a) from all potentially possible options are selected, each of which would satisfy all predetermined constraints: social norms and standards, environmental requirements, implementation deadlines, etc. These options must include the most progressive measures, the technical and economic indicators of which correspond or exceed the best world achievements;
- b) for each of the selected options, costs, results and economic effect are determined (taking into account the dynamics);
- c) the option is recognized as the best one for which the magnitude of the economic effect is maximum, or (with the same results) the cost of achieving it is minimal.
The economic effect from the implementation of an innovative project should be reflected and highlighted in the planned and reporting indicators of the enterprise (or scientific organization). This is a complex and multifaceted task of economic analysis. Therefore, it is possible to outline only some methodological approaches that should be concretized in the practical activities of an enterprise of any form of ownership.
The economic effect of innovation at all stages of its implementation is understood as the excess of the cost estimate of the results over the cost estimate of the total costs of all types of resources for the entire period of the innovation project.
At the same time, the term for the implementation of an innovative project for each innovation means the entire cycle of development and implementation of the project, including the time for conducting research and development, pilot development, serial production, as well as the period for using the results.
When determining the economic effect at the stages of a feasibility study, choosing the best option for an innovative project, the following principles must be observed:
a) the assessment of the effectiveness of the innovation project is carried out according to the terms of use of the final product, taking into account all the accompanying positive and negative results;
b) calculations of economic efficiency are carried out throughout the entire cycle of development and implementation of an innovative project for the period established for the project;
c) bringing to a single accounting year the economic standards and other established indicators used in the calculations, taking into account the economic unevenness of costs and results obtained in different periods of time;
d) the application in the calculations of the standard of efficiency of capital investments and the market value of natural and labor resources, as well as the application of the estimated cost, tariffs and prices that reflect the quality and efficiency of products from the consumer.
The value of the economic effect, determined by the conditions for the use of products, must be calculated before setting prices for scientific and technical and industrial and technical products. It serves as the basis for setting prices for these products. If the use of a product provides for an increase in its quality, then calculations are made at prices that take into account the change in the efficiency of using this product by subsequent consumers.
When calculating the economic effect in terms of production conditions, the following information base should be used:
- 1. Tariffs in force, wholesale, retail and negotiated prices.
- 2. Standards of payment for production resources established by legislation (production assets, labor and natural resources).
- 3. The current standards for deductions from enterprise profits to state and local budgets.
- 4. Rates of settlement and rules of settlement of enterprises with banks for loans or storage of their own funds and other standards.
Methodology for determining the economic efficiency of an innovative project
Determination of the economic effect of any innovative project is carried out in the following order.
1. The economic effect is calculated in total over the years of the billing period:
Et = PT - Zt (1)
where Et is the economic effect of the innovation project for the billing period;
Рт - cost estimate of the results of the implementation of the innovative project for the billing period;
Зт - the cost estimate of the costs of implementing an innovative project for the billing period.
The calculation of the economic effect is carried out with the reduction of the costs and results of different times to a single one for all variants of the innovation project by the time point - to the so-called calculated year tp. The accounting year is usually taken as the earliest of all options, the calendar year that precedes the start of production or the use of a new technology in production.
Bringing the different-time costs of all years of the life cycle of the implementation of the STP measure to the calculated year is carried out by multiplying their value for each year by the reduction factor at.
2. The cost estimate of the results for the entire billing period is carried out according to the following formula:
PT =? Pt *? T (2)
where Pt is the cost estimate of the results in the t year of the billing period;
tn is the starting year of the billing period;
tk is the final year of the billing period.
In this case, for the initial year of the billing period, the year of the beginning of the financing of work, including research, is taken. For the final year of the billing period, the moment of completion of the entire life cycle of the innovation project is taken.
The valuation of outputs is defined as the sum of the major Pt0 and the accompanying Ptc outputs. They can be determined by different methods.
For new items of labor:
Ptc = (At: Уt) * Цt (3)
where At is the volume of use of new objects of labor in the year t;
Уt-consumption of objects of labor per unit of output produced with their use in the year t;
Цt is the price of a unit of output produced with the use of a new object of labor in the year t.
For durable work equipment:
Pt0 = Цt` * At` * Bt (4)
where Tst is the price of a unit of production (taking into account the efficiency of its use) produced with the help of new means of labor in the year t;
Аt is the volume of use of new means of labor in the year t;
Вt - productivity of means of labor in the year t.
The cost estimate of related results includes additional economic results in different areas of the national economy, as well as economic assessments of social and environmental consequences.
These results can be measured in value terms using the following formula:
Ptc =? Rjt *? jt (5)
where Ptc is the cost estimate of social and environmental results in year t;
Rjt is the value of individual results (in kind), taking into account the scale of its implementation in the year t;
ajt is the cost estimate of a unit of an individual result in year t;
n is the number of indicators taken into account when determining the impact of measures on the environment and social sphere.
3. Costs for the implementation of scientific and technical progress for the billing period should include costs in the production and use of products and are calculated by the formula:
Зт = Зтп + Зтн (6)
where Ztp is the cost of manufacturing products for the billing period;
Ztn - the cost of using the product (excluding the cost of purchasing the product itself) for the billing period.
The costs of production and use of products are usually calculated in a uniform manner using the formula:
ЗтП (И) =? (Иt + Кt - Лt) *? T (7)
where Ztp (u) is the cost of all resources in the year t (including the cost of obtaining related results);
It is the current costs of production (use) of products in year t, excluding depreciation charges for renovation;
Кt - one-time costs in the production (use) of products in the year t;
Лt is the residual value of fixed assets retired in t year.
If at the end of the settlement period there are fixed assets that can be used for a number of years, then the value of Лt is determined as the residual value of these funds.
Methodology for determining the economic efficiency of an innovative project.
According to this methodological approach, the annual economic effect is determined by comparing the so-called reduced costs for the basic and new options for production activities.
Costs disclosed is the sum of the cost and the standardized profit per unit of product or service. They are calculated using the formula:
Z = C + En * K (8)
where З - reduced costs per unit of production (work), in rubles;
С - unit cost of production (work), in rubles;
En - the standard coefficient of the efficiency of capital investments;
K - specific capital investments in production assets (per unit of production or work), in rubles.
In fact, Yong represents the average national economic profitability.
The calculation of the annual economic effect of new equipment, technology and organization of production according to the methodology based on the principles of reduced costs for the production of comparable products is carried out according to the basic formula:
E = at * [(C1 + EnK1) - (C2 + EnK2)] * A2 (9)
where E is the annual economic effect, in rubles;
at - coefficient of reduction in time;
C1 and C2 - unit cost of production (work) produced using basic and new technology (respectively), in UAH;
К1 and К2 - specific capital investments for basic and new versions of new equipment, in UAH;
A2 is the annual volume of products (work) produced with the help of a new version of new equipment in the estimated year in physical terms.
To assess the overall economic efficiency of innovation, a system of indicators can be used:
- * Integral effect.
- * Index of profitability.
- * Average annual return on investment.
- * Payback period.
The integral effect E int is the value of the differences between the results and innovation costs for the calculation period, reduced to one, usually the initial year, that is, taking into account the discounting of results and costs.
T p is the estimated year;
Р t is the result in the t-th year;
З t - innovation costs in the t-th year;
t - discount factor (discount factor).
The basic formula for calculating the discount factor (d):
where a is the accepted price of capital (cleared of inflation) or the net profitability of alternative investment projects;
b - the level of the risk premium for projects of this type (in accordance with the classification of innovation);
с - inflation rate.
If the discount periods are less than a year, the discount rate should be translated into the appropriate units: from interest per annum to interest per month (quarter, half year):
k is the recalculated discount;
Initial discount,% per annum;
k is the number of recalculation periods in a year (k = 12 for a period of 1 month, k = 4 for a period of 1 quarter, k = 1 for a period of 1 half year).
The risk premium is calculated based on the middle class of innovation (), determined by the formula:
where k i is the complexity class of the innovation according to the i-th classification criterion (i-th line of Appendix B);
n is the number of classification features.
Table 10. Classification of innovations and innovation processes by risk groups
|
Signs of division into groups |
The values of the features that allow you to determine the risk group of innovation and innovation process |
|
(4) New solution |
|
|
2. Type of innovator (scope of innovation) |
(7) Manufacturing firms and departments |
|
3. Type of innovator (area of knowledge and functions) |
(8) Engineering and technology |
|
4. Type of innovator (sphere of innovation: firms, services) |
(6) Industrial links |
|
5. Level of innovator |
(7) Division of the firm |
|
6. Territorial scope of innovation |
(4) District, city |
|
7. The scale of the spread of the innovation |
(7) Wide diffusion |
|
8. By the degree of radicality (novelty) |
(2) Upgrading (upgrading) |
|
9. By the depth of transformations of the innovator |
(4) Elemental, local |
|
10. The reason for the emergence of a new (initiative) |
(5) Production needs |
|
11. Stage of the life cycle of demand for a new product |
(8) Origin of E |
|
12. The nature of the product life cycle curve |
(1) Typical, classic curve |
|
13. Stages of the life cycle of the product (according to the standard curve) |
|
|
14. Level of technology variability |
(1) "Stable technology" |
|
15. Stages of the life cycle of technology |
(8) Inception |
|
16. Stages of the life cycle of an organization-innovator |
(8) Creation |
|
17. Duration of the innovation process |
(4) (up to 1 year) Short-term |
|
The sum of the values of risk indicators |
Risk premium
The net profitability of alternative projects for investing financial resources (deposit for 3 months in VTB24) is 9.5%
Inflation rate 5%
Let's calculate the discount factor:
Then we calculate the discount rate for each month.
The calculation is presented in table 11.
Table 11. Calculation of the discount factor.
|
Discount coefficient |
|
The integral effect is equal to:
Eint (1 month) = - 568000 * 1 = -568000
Eint (2 month) = - 58000 * 0.97 = -56260
Eint (3 month) = - 53000 * 0.94 = -49820
Eint (4 month) = 137000 * 0.91 = 124670
Eint (5 month) = 337000 * 0.89 = 299930
Eint (6 months) = 537000 * 0.86 = 461820
Eint (for 6 months) = 212340
The integral effect of this project is positive, which indicates that the project is profitable.
Jr. Innovation Profitability Index
The profitability index () is the ratio of discounted income to innovation expenditures given at the same date.
The calculation of the profitability index is carried out according to the formula:
where is the profitability index
Дt - income in the period
Kt - the amount of investment in innovation in the period
Jr = (0-18000) * 1 + (0-18000) * 0.97 + (0-18000) * 0.94 + (500000-363000) * 0.91 + (700000-363000) * 0.89 + (900000-363000) * 0.86 / 550,000 * 1 + 40,000 * 0.97 + 35000 * 0.94 = 834040/621700 = 1.34
1.34> 1 an innovative project is considered cost-effective
The profitability index (ID) is the ratio of the total discounted income to the total discounted costs (mainly for capital investments):
where D t - incomes of the i-th period;
K t - costs of the i-th period;
n is the number of project implementation periods;
t - discount.
ID = 834040/621700 = 1.34
1.34> 1, which means that the project can be implemented.
Average annual return on investment (SR).
Project profitability (average annual return on investment) is a kind of profitability index correlated with the duration of the project. This indicator shows what income each ruble of investment invested in the project brings, it is convenient to use when comparing investment alternatives:
SR = (1.34-1) / 6 * 100% = 5.7%
From the calculations indicated above, it follows that each ruble invested will bring 5.7 rubles of income, the project is economically effective.
Payback period.
The payback period (To) is one of the most common indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of investments. Unlike the "payback period" indicator used in our practice, it is also based not on profit, but on cash flow, bringing the invested funds into innovation and the amount of cash flow to their present value.
Payback period formula:
where K is the initial investment in innovation;
D - annual cash income.
Current = 625000/2100000 = 0.3 years (3 months)
The payback period is shorter than the innovation implementation period. From this we can conclude that this project is effective. You can introduce this direction into production.